如果没有 Linux 的出现，现在的世界会是一个什么样子？

guy_1

   刚刚看到一篇文章，《A world without Linux: Where would Apache, Microsoft -- even Apple be today?》。文章作了一个历史性的假设——如果 Linus 没有上传它的 linux_0.01 给公众，也就是世界上存在 Linux，但不是像现在这样在公众的范围内，而是在芬兰的一个默默无闻的角落，那么世界的计算机格局又会是什么样子呢？

   从计算机的历史中了解到：当 UNIX 变为专有软件以后，很多黑客很是失望，他们再也不能阅读到操作系统源代码了，即使大学的教授讲授操作系统课程，学生学习操作系统，都要花费大量的资金来购买使用权，以前使用 UNIX 源代码讲习的日子一去不复返了。在这样的背景下，荷兰的 AST 教授开发了 Minix，用了大概三年的业余时间，后来也伴随产生了那本著名的《操作系统设计与实现》，下面的故事大概是学习计算机的都耳熟能详了。无疑 Linux 取得了巨大的成功，这个成功的原因我认为不是商业上的，而是心理上的，因为 Linux 是自由的，它满足了全世界计算机爱好者，尤其是黑客们对于操作系统内核的心灵需求，再加上传统的黑客文化，于是全球的计算机开发者通力合作来把这个内核做大，做好。

    如果没有 Linux 出现，那场官司结束以后，计算机爱好者们就会获得 FreeBSD 的操作系统源码，而且 BSD 协议是充分自由的，这样 FreeBSD 就会飞速向前发展了。好吧，历史没有假设，Linux 终究是出现了，而且是生逢其时......

    原文我贴到下面吧。

A world without Linux: Where would Apache, Microsoft -- even Apple be today?
                                                                            By Paul Venezia
If Linux hadn't conquered the world, we'd all be running FreeBSD, maybe even on our desktops

If we take a look back at the computing landscape in 1991, we find it's completely built on large, entrenched companies charging amazing amounts of money for their products. Whether you were running IBM mainframes or AS/400s, SunOS, HP-UX, AIX, or even VMS, you were working with a very expensive operating system on very expensive hardware.

All data was big data, and there wasn't much room for the midrange and low end of server-based computing. You either had a bunch of PCs churning through DOS apps, generally without a network, or you had a monolithic box in the back room that cost a ton. Computing was an ivory tower.

But when Linux appeared, the mindset was changing, especially in the computer science departments of universities and colleges. The academics wanted to be able to work on systems that didn't require tons of money to license. That spurred the development of Minix, an educational OS designed for use in universities, and it initially motivated Torvalds to begin coding the Linux kernel. Remove Torvalds and Linux from this picture, and assuming that all other variables stay the same (which is a big assumption), then Minix continues on as an educational tool and nothing more, and the monolithic gear continues to rule the computing landscape.

But wait. A few short years later, an operating system known as FreeBSD was made available for FTP download. Its popularity grew quickly, as many users familiar with BSD downloaded FreeBSD for themselves and set about improving it. Then followed the landmark lawsuits that led to BSD becoming open source and the BSD license allowing for the free use of the code. FreeBSD was quickly reworked to incorporate the newly freed code, and it became truly free FreeBSD 2.0 in January 1995.

Without Linux in this mix, I think it's safe to say the thousands and thousands of code hackers all over the world would have found FreeBSD, much as they found Linux. The desire and skills were present, and the licensing on FreeBSD made it extremely easy for anyone to jump into the game. Instead of all those collaborations pushing Linux forward, those efforts would've been focused on FreeBSD. This would have resulted in faster development of FreeBSD and could have eventually led to any number of forks finding traction in various industries.

For instance, before Linux came along, BSD systems were all the rage for small ISPs in the early days of the Internet. BSDi was a favorite, tagged as "the Internet super server," and came outfitted with a number of tools specifically focused on ISP functionality. BSD had a long, established history with an essentially unmatched heritage, as well as very attractive licensing. At that point in time, Linux was barely at version 1.1; I think it's clear that had Linux failed to thrive, FreeBSD would fill that vacuum today.

This alternate history so far occurs prior to the release of Windows 95 and Windows NT, watershed moments in computing. Linux didn't have much of an impact on either product or their successors for a few years. When Linux suddenly emerged as a major threat to Windows, that threat was initially ignored by Redmond.

Had FreeBSD soaked up the spotlight -- and the massive amount of volunteer labor that fueled Linux -- it's quite possible that FreeBSD would have risen to interfere with Microsoft's desktop and server operating system, thus sending Redmond down a different path. After all, Linux was "easy" to dismiss as a college project started by a kid a few short years ago, whereas FreeBSD's lineage was extremely well known and trusted.

If FreeBSD had gained as much momentum and adoption as Linux enjoyed in the mid-1990s, we may have seen major strategic changes from Microsoft much earlier than we did. Who's to say where that might have led? However, I'm fairly certain FreeBSD would have been far and away the most advanced operating system of the day, if Linux had not been eating such a large portion of its cake.

What happens after that might have followed the same basic track. Instead of Apache running all those websites on all those Linux boxes, it would be running on FreeBSD. The tech boom and bust would have happened in much the same way, and highly computerized consumer devices would be littering our lives as they do now. After all, Mac OS X is derived from BSD, as is iOS. It's just as easy to squeeze FreeBSD into a set-top box as it is Linux.

If the world hadn't contributed to building Linux from scratch in the 1990s, FreeBSD might be more advanced than any other OS is today. Plenty of wheels were reinvented during Linux's formative years, and perhaps without the need to take those steps back, FreeBSD may have taken faster steps forward.

But as I said, dabbling in alternative history is always a crapshoot, and a world without Linux could be much the same. All things considered, I expect it's best that it turned out as it has. More choice is generally good, and it's evident that Linux and FreeBSD have taken significantly divergent paths to achieve the same goals. I'll gladly use them both.

znnnz

什么官司？

guy_1

znnnz 发表于 2013-01-18 17:39
什么官司？

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USL_v._BSDi

古丁高手

呵呵的确是这样

tony_trh

FREEBSD不是在LINUX之前几十年就有了吗？没有LINUX，FREEBSD可以替代，那时候雅虎就是用FREEBSD

落伽之光

其实FreeBSD社区反复遗憾这段历史，并没有什么意义。因为它对于现在linux/FreeBSD的格局，根本不起决定作用。实际当时绝对不可能只有linux一个自由内核在网络上传递，黑客们也不会只知道和开发linux一个内核。而当时大多数人和公司用的也都是UNIX/FreeBSD。即便是linux不出现，也会有其他的自由内核出现。当linux已经出现，人们依旧可以继续开发FreeBSD。人们要学习操作系统内核源代码，开发内核，FreeBSD已经足够了，而当时也确实是这样的。FreeBSD是延续了30多年UNIX的基本系统，比刚刚出现的linux成熟的太多，而且充分的自由，完全满足黑客精神甚至商业需求。如果真要在互联网上做服务器，没有人会选择用不成熟的linux，而即便是发展到90年代终末期，linux的依旧比不上FreeBSD。

可是，无论哪种假设，展到现在最终的结果，也依旧会是现在这个样子。FreeBSD依旧不会比现在linux流行。其根本原因，并不是什么官司延误了时机，不是什么linux生逢其时，不是什么linux比FreeBSD好，不是比FreeBSD成功，也不是linux比FreeBSD自由，更不是技术linux上多么牛，这些理由都不是。

即便是技术发展到现在，一个linux用户，真正的踏踏实实学习和使用一段时间的FreeBSD以后，也都会发现FreeBSD比linux的很多发行版要好。而很多用了很久的linux高手，在使用了FreeBSD一段时间以后，也都会诚恳的发出这样的声音，FreeBSD是实实在在的选择。这个世界的真相就是这样，流行的未必就是最好的。当年80/90年代，微软DOS/windows那么烂，却是全世界使用最多的。而且据说windowsNT里面，也是大面积的FreeBSD代码，沿用到现在。发布在公众面前的，脍炙人口，大家都在谈论的，未必就是真相。

真正的理由，只有那些大型计算机商业公司的老板和深谙商业规则/GPL/BSD条款的少数律师知道。我奇怪很多人到现在都没弄明白。驱动linux发展的，不可能是一个被叫做芬兰的国家的某个旮旯里的那个大学生，也不可能是互联网上那些缺乏目标一致性和执行力的散乱组织自由的黑客，也不可能是众口难调的自己到底想要什么都不知道的用户或者市场。

成功的并不是linux，而是那些支持linux的大型商业公司。而这些既合作又竞争又垄断的甚至又欺骗的商业公司，为了自己兜里的银子，是不可能因为linux本身而都自觉自愿地兴高采烈的无私无畏的走在一起的。这些公司，不可能对linux感兴趣，更不可能对FreeBSD感兴趣，他们只对自己公司的商标注册的操作系统感兴趣，只对自己的商标注册的软件运行在自己的操作系统上面感兴趣，只对自己的硬件设备CPU感兴趣。没有公司关心linux到底是什么，linux出现与否根本不重要，没有linux还会有别的什么*nux出现，而GPL的版权能够保证并强迫众人拾柴火焰高，不然就有人跟你急眼到法庭告你。而你不拾柴火，别人就拾柴火，火焰高了它自己那份自然也就高了。与其花极大的力气单独的自己吹嘘自己，不如省点儿力气，跟大家凑一块起哄吹嘘一个叫做linux的东西，省钱省力，红红火火，反正用户也不懂，最终用户花钱买的也不是linux而是他自己公司的注册商标的操作系统软件硬件设备CPU数据库和服务。贡献技术，贡献代码，贡献驱动，是你的也是我的，你必须得让我看到你的技术和代码，不然也有人告你。以linux为纽带形成了合作关系，受益的反正是我们，不是linus那个小毛孩子，他也不会跟老子直接竞争。火焰高了，还能更高，商业上的投入反而少了。事半功倍的事儿谁不干？

lsstarboy

１、历史的偶然性和必然性。
２、没有商业支持的Linux，根本不是FreeBSD的对手。
３、专利促进技术进步，但也阻碍技术发展。

anthie

回复 6# 落伽之光


    根本不是GNU众人合力力量大，而是某个高阶兄弟会的阴谋。
其惯用手法可见一般。先弄个共产主义，然后鼓吹人民为之实现。
而其真正的目的总是阴暗的。其真正的目的是阻止其他开源系统发展，并取得时间。
BSD的技术向着无国界，知识透明方向发展的。最终发展成一个自由的大同世界。这是某些人不愿看到的。
兄弟会宁可要以个GNU  LINUX 而不想让一个FreeBSD供任何人使用。
中国利用BSD开发国防系统更是他们所不愿发生的。
FreeBSD 极易成为不可控势力的利器，而Linux则不会。
阻止BSD 世界范围的流行最好的办法不是用官司弄死它，而是用另一种无害的方案替代。正如疫苗是失去了活性的病毒。

fender0107401

注意舆论导向，少搞阴谋论啊。

爱咋地咋地，FreeBSD现在牛逼的狠。

svenwang

anthie 发表于 2013-01-21 23:51
回复 6# 落伽之光

没有linux，freebsd现在就不会发展得这么好。freebsd不一下子把linux搞死，就是为了给自己留一个竞争对手，让自己有前进的动力。
这就是猫和老鼠的游戏，linux就是freebsd这只猫手里的老鼠。