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most widely used of the open-source scripting languages. In early 1987 the first version of the GNU C compiler
appeared, and by the end of 1987 the core of the GNU toolset was falling into place 鈥 editor, compiler, debugger,
and basic development tools. Meanwhile, X windows was beginning to show up on relatively inexpensive
workstations. Together, these would provide the armature for the open-source Unix developments of the 1990s.
1986 was also the year that PC technology broke free of IBM's grip. IBM, still trying to preserve a price-vs.-power
curve across its product line that would favor its high-margin mainframe business, rejected the 386 for most of its
new line of PS/2 computers in favor of the weaker 286. The PS/2 series, designed around a proprietary bus
architecture to lock out clonemakers, became a colossally expensive failure. Compaq, the most aggressive of the
clonemakers, trumped IBM's move by releasing the first 386 machine. Even with a clock speed of a mere 16MHz,
the 386 made a tolerable Unix box. It was the first PC of which that could be said.
It was beginning to be possible to imagine that Stallman's GNU project might mate with 386 machines to produce
Unix workstations almost an order of magnitude less costly than anyone was offering. Curiously, no one seems to
have actually got this far in their thinking. Most Unix programmers, coming from the minicomputer and
workstation worlds, continued to disdain cheap 80x86 machines in favor of more elegant 68000-based designs.
And, though a lot of programmers contributed to the GNU project, among Unix people it tended to be considered a
quixotic gesture that was unlikely to have near-term practical consequences.
I feel pretty stupid about this in retrospect. I was a little foresighted on the hardware side; I
predicted publicly in 1987 that 386-based Intel machines running Unix would best the 68000
boxes and swamp the workstation industry. But, in spite of having been personally
acquainted with Stallman for over ten years and an early GNU contributor myself, I missed
the potential synergy with the GNU project as completely as everybody else.
--Eric S. Raymond
The Unix community had never lost its rebel streak. But in retrospect, we were nearly as blind to the future bearing
down on us as IBM or AT&T. Not even Richard Stallman, who had declared a moral crusade against proprietary
software a few years before, really understood how badly the productization of Unix had damaged the community
around it; his concerns were with more abstract and long-term issues. The rest of us kept hoping that some clever
variation on the corporate formula would solve the problems of fragmentation, wretched marketing, and strategic
drift, and redeem Unix's pre-divestiture promise. But worse was still to come.
1988 was the year Ken Olsen (CEO of DEC) famously described Unix as 鈥渟nake oil鈥. DEC had been shipping its
own variant of Unix on PDP-11s since 1982, but really wanted the business to go to its proprietary VMS operating
system. DEC and the minicomputer industry was in deep trouble, swamped by waves of powerful low-cost
machines coming out of Sun Microsystems and the rest of the workstation vendors. Most of those workstations ran
Unix.
But the Unix industry's own problems were growing more severe. In 1988 AT&T took a 20% stake in Sun
Microsystems. These two companies, the leaders in the Unix market, were beginning to wake up to the threat posed
by PCs, IBM, and Microsoft, and to realize that the preceding five years of bloodletting had gained them little. The
AT&T/Sun alliance and the development of technical standards around POSIX eventually healed the breach
between the System V and BSD Unix lines. But the second phase of the Unix wars began when the second-tier
vendors (IBM, DEC, Hewlett-Packard, and others) formed the Open Software Foundation and lined up against the
AT&T/Sun axis (represented by Unix International). More rounds of Unix fighting Unix ensued.
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